Are SixMan Rotations Ever Worth It

Noah Syndergaard, the New York Mets’ phenomenal young starting pitcher, throws 99 mph fastballs and hits home runs to straight center field. Dillon Gee, the guy Syndergaard replaced in the rotation in May, does not do those things. After a trip to the disabled list, Gee is back, but the Mets couldn’t just send a rookie nicknamed Thor back down to the minors. They also couldn’t keep Gee, a perfectly solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher, there either.So, flush with pitching talent, the Mets are trying something novel: They are deploying a six-man rotation. It might just be a brilliant way to safeguard the health of their pitchers.Earlier this year, sabermetrician Russell Carleton wrote that six-man rotations offer few obvious benefits in terms of pitching performance: The extra day of rest doesn’t seem to increase pitcher strikeout rates or reduce walk rates. And, because the extra man entails splitting up the workload among a larger group of people, it tends to dilute the effect of truly great starting pitchers. Over a full season, a six-man rotation results in about 30-50 fewer innings per starter. For a top-heavy Mets rotation that can send Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard to the mound, reducing their workload appears costly and counterintuitive.1Carleton estimates a team’s cost of this reduced workload, for an average No. 1 starter, at about 1.6 wins (and Harvey might be better than an average No. 1 starter).If there is a potential benefit of a six-man rotation, then, it must be its health effects. And the Mets could use some preventive medicine. As others have noted, the number of pitchers with elbow injuries has spiked.2Even so, the epidemic is not as bad as it seems. The injury concern goes double for the Mets, whose rotation relies on a recently recovered Harvey, 42-year-old Bartolo Colón and fresh-off-the-DL Gee. (The Mets also saw another young pitcher, Zack Wheeler, undergo Tommy John surgery this year.) Since the greatest predictor of future pitcher injury is previous injury, the Mets are in a precarious position.Previous attempts to figure out whether six-man rotations help pitchers’ health haven’t suggested much of a connection. When Carleton did it, he couldn’t find any benefit, but he looked over a long timeframe (going all the way to the 1950s). Because we have detailed injury data going back only about 10 years, Carleton had to use a model that incorporated both injuries and other factors that might remove a pitcher from the rotation (such as poor performance). Accordingly, Carleton found only a modest effect on injury probability for starters going on three days’ rest, and only in the past couple of decades.On the other hand, Eno Sarris pointed out that six-man rotations are standard in Japan’s highest professional league, and the rate of Tommy John surgeries is much lower there. This lower rate exists despite a similarly abusive3Or perhaps even worse than abusive schedule for young pitchers. Furthering Sarris’s point, Yu Darvish, the Texas Rangers ace and recent victim of elbow surgery, argued that such a change might reduce wear and tear on the arm. Nevertheless, there are many distinctions between Japanese professional baseball and MLB, and it’s hard to confidently pin the responsibility for fewer injuries on the rotation strategy alone.I took a more direct look, using injury information accrued by Baseball Prospectus (specifically, Corey Dawkins) from 2006 through 2014. Over this period, starting pitchers have been primarily used in a five-man rotation, usually getting 4.2 to 4.5 days of rest, on average, over the course of a year. As a result, we need to look at individual pitcher outings to see some evidence of an injury-prevention effect. By linking the injury data with the time between starts of every pitcher,4Using data from Retrosheet we can get an idea about whether a six-man rotation would help reduce injury risk.I found that there is a strong link between rest and injury rates. Looking at starts on three days of rest, 1.7 percent of pitchers suffered a reported injury within the next two weeks.5These results hold for time windows going out to about 60 days, after which the correlation between rest and injury rates trails off. At four days of rest, the typical amount in the modern age, that number drops precipitously to 1.0 percent. (Maybe that helps explain why the five-man rotation came to be.) Then the injury risk falls even further: at five days of rest — which would be standard for a six-man rotation — just 0.8 percent of pitchers are injured in the next 14 days, for a 20 percent decrease compared with four days of rest. That is a potentially meaningful drop in injury risk.6The difference in injury probability over two weeks hovers right at the edge of statistical significance (p=.06, using a two-tailed Fisher’s exact test), partially because the probability of an injury occurring over any two-week span is quite low. If you extend the test to consider longer time windows (such as 21 days), the p-value drops below .05.Despite the drop in injury risk, when injuries were suffered, they were no more severe for pitchers operating on short rest. On either four or five days’ rest, pitchers lost a median of about 21 days of time.7There were too few injuries after three days’ rest to make any comparison meaningful. So more rest may prevent injuries, but injuries on shorter rest are no worse when they do happen.There are still potential issues of correlation and causation. Managers might change usage patterns for pitchers depending on their injury risks. Alternatively, injury risk could be correlated with some other factor that dictates usage patterns. Furthermore, though the additional day of rest seems to reduce short-term injury risk, there’s no guarantee that it would work as well in the long term — perhaps more rest merely delays the inevitable.8You might expect this scenario if pitcher injury results primarily from the progressive buildup of damage in the ligaments of the arm. If that’s the case, you can delay the date of injury by reducing the frequency of starts and the workload, but you can’t really prevent it from happening.Even if you accept that longer rest periods lead to fewer injuries, it’s difficult to come to any hard and fast conclusions regarding the optimal strategy. Although it appears that starting with more rest is correlated with a lower injury probability, the benefit that might be gained will be different for every team and every rotation. Top-heavy rotations that deploy a Cy Young candidate will suffer from seeing their excellent pitcher throw fewer innings, but at the same time, they may be guarding against that pitcher’s suffering an untimely injury (at least in the short term).This is the situation in which the Mets find themselves. With Harvey anchored as a dominant starter who’s also recovering from a dangerous injury, the reward (potentially reducing his risk of relapse) could outweigh the risk (losing some of his innings in the near term). And, as noted above, Harvey is not the only injury risk on the staff.Regardless of whether the six-man rotation is a good idea for other teams, it seems to fit the Mets and their injury-prone rotation. The question now becomes whether their slick strategy will come to cost them a win or two, as Harvey or Syndergaard gives way to the less-talented Gee. Perched on the edge of playoff contention this year, but with a still-brighter future ahead, the Mets must carefully balance the reduced risk of injury with the possibility of a surprise October run. read more

SELECMTEN NEWS 5 Things That Happened At Last Weeks Board Meeting

first_imgWILMINGTON, MA — Below are FIVE things that happened at last week’s Wilmington Board of Selectmen Meeting:#1) Town Manager Jeff Hull notified Selectmen that Michele Kincaid, Bernard Nally and Kevin Stokes were all reappointed for 3-year terms to the Finance Committee. Additionally, Hirak Shah was appointed to the unexpired term of former Finance Committee (and current Selectman) Jonathan Eaton. Shah serves as Legal Counsel for State Senator Bruce Tarr’s office. Other candidates for the seat included Thomas Attura, Eric Flynn, Lori Tibbetts, and Joseph Tierney. The appointments took place on June 19. The Appointing Committee consisted of Town Moderator Robert Peterson Jr., Selectman Chair Kevin Caira, and Finance Committee Chair Theresa Manganelli.#2) Selectmen approved the request of Wilmington Health & Recovery Coordinator Samantha Reif, on behalf of the Wilmington Substance Abuse Coalition, to use the Town Common and Gazebo for a Candlelight Vigil on Monday, September 17, 2018, from 5pm to 10pm.  Selectmen also approved a request to illuminate the Town Common purple during the month of September in observance of National Recovery Month.#3) Town Manager Jeff Hull notified Selectmen that the state’s Economic Assistance Coordinating Council (EACC) unanimously approved Analog Devices’s Tax Increment Financing (TIF) agreement with the Town. Hull attended the EACC’s meeting with company officials on June 20 at Worcester City Hall. After the success of the TIF agreement with Analog — the town’s first — Hull notes he hopes to establish guidelines for future potential TIF agreements and will bring a draft TIF policy to Selectmen for its consideration within the next few months.#4) Selectmen approved the request of Jessica Weaver for an exemption to work as a summer lifeguard at Town Beach. Weaver was recently employed by the school system as an Educational Assistant. For the past several years, she has worked as a summer lifeguard at Town Beach, which she wanted to continue. In order to continue, she needed a waiver from the conflict of interest law for being employed by the town in two different capacities.  Town Counsel also okayed the request.  Town Manager Jeff Hull noted the Recreation Department is having particular trouble finding lifeguards for Town Beach this summer. Selectman Greg Bendel encouraged residents to contact Recreation Director Karen Campbell if they know  anyone who may be interested in serving as a lifeguard.#5) Selectmen approved the request of Sheri Palmisano for residents of Lucaya Circle to have a Neighborhood Block Party on Saturday, August 11, 2018, from noon to 10pm.Additional news from the meeting:Selectmen Seek To Keep Dan Deutsch As Special Counsel On Olin & NET Issues, But Appoint New Firm As General Town CounselPolice & Fire: North Wilmington MBTA Train Crossing Is Endangering LivesSchool Committee Vacancy To Be Billed On August 13; Letters Of Interest Due July 27Town Manager Jeff Hull’s Contract Is Up September 30, Negotiations To Begin SoonRetired Wilmington Teacher Bequeaths $50,000 To Town Scholarship FundTown Accountant Mike Morris Announces RetirementVerizon Announces Price Increases For Wilmington Fios CustomersLike Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedSELECTMEN NOTEBOOK: 5 Things That Happened At Last Week’s Selectmen’s MeetingIn “Government”SELECTMEN NOTEBOOK: 6 Things That Happened At This Month’s Selectmen’s MeetingIn “Government”SELECTMEN NOTEBOOK: 6 MORE Things That Happened At This Month’s Selectmen’s MeetingIn “Government”last_img read more

Fords LaneKeeping Bed keeps mattress bogarts on their side

first_img Comment The inspiration comes from lane-keep assist, which uses light steering effort to guide a vehicle away from the lines on either side of the road. It’s another interesting adaptation of road-car tech outside the car, following in the footsteps of the Quiet Kennel, which uses noise-canceling tech to placate pups during fireworks shows or thunderstorms. And just like the kennel, the Lane-Keeping Bed’s design would look right at home in any newish house.Of course, it’s just a concept, so don’t expect Ford to bring these into production. But for those of us who are constantly being encroached upon over the course of a good night’s sleep, something like this could truly come in handy.Enlarge ImageIf the whole car thing doesn’t work out, there’s always bed design. Ford’s already proven its chops with this one. Ford Europe More about 2019 Ford F-150 Tags 2020 Kia Telluride review: Kia’s new SUV has big style and bigger value Ford Ford Europe likes taking inspiration from its driver-assist systems and adapting them to tackle problems outside the car. After building an impressive dog kennel, the automaker has turned its attention to mattress hogs.Ford’s Lane-Keeping Bed was built to keep each half of a couple on their respective side of the bed. Pressure sensors determine if one person crosses over the mattress’s centerline. When that happens, a set of integrated conveyor belts shifts the whole bed, putting each person back on their respective sides. 2020 Hyundai Palisade review: Posh enough to make Genesis jealous More From Roadshowcenter_img Ford Preview • 2019 Ford F-150 Raptor: Detroit hustles harder 1 Review • 2019 Ford F-150 review: Popular pickup keeps on truckin’ Share your voice Car Culture Auto Tech 2020 BMW M340i review: A dash of M makes everything betterlast_img read more

Kangana Ranaut again lashes out at Alia Bhatt Ranbir Kapoor

first_imgKangana Ranaut, Alia Bhatt, Ranbir KapoorVarinder Chawla/TwitterKangana Ranaut is just not willing to let go of her constant nagging and criticism against Bollywood stars like Alia Bhatt and Ranbir Kapoor. The Manikarnika actress has yet again spewed venom on Alia and Ranbir for brushing off their hands from talking about issues of national importance.Over the past few weeks, Ranaut has been on a bashing spree when she complained about how Bollywood stars like Deepika Padukone, Aamir Khan and Alia Bhatt, to name a few, have always failed to acknowledge her hard work.During her recent interview when Ranaut was asked why she loved picking on people, she told Mid-Day, “I do only that when I am rubbed the wrong way. And what is this thing of calling them young… Ranbir Kapoor is, what, 37 years old, young kid of the generation and Alia Bhatt just turned turned 27… my mother had three children at 27. This is absolutely unfair… bachche hai, ki dumb hai ki kya hai…”Kangana further went on to say that actors are quite comfortable in discussing about their sex lives and when it comes to talking about importance issues in the country, they brush it under the carpet.”If we are asking about your sex life, that you are okay to discuss, put the pictures on Instagram, who I am f***ing, who I am not f***ing, that is fine; but about the country, ‘it’s my personal choice’,” Kangana said.Post Kangana’s unwelcoming statements on actors not talking about politics and putting forth their point of views, Alia had earlier said that she has an opinion on issues but she will keep it to herself. Alia had opined that she had not done anything to deserve such statements from Kangana Ranaut but, had also said that she would apologise to the Queen star if at all she felt bad for something she did.Last week, Kangana said that if she will not receive a National film Award for her portrayal of Rani Lakshmibai in the historical drama Manikarnika, then it will lead to questions on their credibility.Kangana recently was out of the city for few days as she went to Coimbatore on a spiritual journey with some intense meditation plans. She was on ten-days of silence meditation which even included staying away from modern communication gadgets.It remains to be seen whether Kangana would start experiencing the destructive effect of constant nagging and criticism in the days to come.(With IANS Inputs)last_img read more

Ashoke Dinda infuriated by RCBs reference to Dinda Academy lashes out on

first_imgDinda isn’t happy about his name being used with a negative connotationTwitter/Ashoke DindaAshoke Dinda has been a successful medium pace bowler for Bengal in domestic cricket. His international career, unfortunately, never flourished. For most ardent followers of Indian cricket, the most enduring memory of him might be getting hit for a six on the last ball of a T20I match at Wankhede Stadium by Eoin Morgan when his team needed 5 to win.This seems to have left a rather negative image of the right-arm pacer as a profligate and incompetent bowler. In these days of social media, a stereotype can become popular very quickly and that’s what has happened to Dinda also. During the ongoing season of IPL, every time a bowler has proven to be expensive or failed to deliver at crucial times, he has been declared a member of ‘Dinda Academy’ by the Twitterati.ControversyThis was the original tweet from RCB which set off the stormTwitter/Royal Challengers BangaloreFor a long time, these kinds of references were limited to fans. But on April 24, after Royal Challengers Bangalore defeated Kings XI Punjab with Umesh Yadav picking up three wickets and bowling well in the final over, even the official Twitter handle of RCB put out a tweet which read: ‘Dinda Academy? What’s that?’ with a picture of Umesh below. This followed the reaction of fans to an earlier match where the RCB bowler almost failed to defend 26 runs in the last over against a rampaging Mahendra Singh Dhoni. Yadav had been announced as a member of ‘Dinda Academy’ on social media at that time.This provocation from an official Twitter handle proved too much for the Bengal seamer and he vented his spleen on Instagram. His post had a very clear message for those who decided to have a chuckle at his expense: “Haters, helping you get you statistics right. Stop and stare well your opinion is not my reality. So shut your hating selves and keep me out of your mouth.” This text was attached to a picture showing his IPL record: 78 matches, 75 innings, 69 wickets, economy of 8.20 and average of 30.04.Dinda responded on InstagramInstagram/Ashoke DindaThe RCB twitter page had removed the tweet well before this outburst from Dinda. The reactions from the fans to Dinda’s rebuke are, as would be expected, of a mixed nature. Some have backed the bowler while some feel he has been too sensitive. Some, meanwhile, continue to poke fun at him.But it is undeniable that judging Dinda on the basis of a few performances is wrong. The 35-year old has played 115 first-class matches and picked 417 wickets. In 92 List A games, he grabbed 141 scalps while his overall T20 record features 146 wickets in 144 games. He was able to represent India in 13 ODIs and 9 T20Is without any ground-shaking performance.last_img read more

Shortlist for Sushila Devi Literature Award announced

first_imgThe Bhopal Literature Festival recently announced the shortlist of authors for the prestigious Sushila Devi Literature Award For ‘The Best Book Of Fiction Written By A Woman Author’, written in English and published in 2016 or 2017. Instituted by Ratanlal Foundation, the award will be held in partnership with the Bhopal Literature Festival. The award carries first prize of two lakh INR and two runners up awards of 25,000 INR each. The final award winner will be declared by the first week of January 2019. The winner will also be invited to the Bhopal Literature and Art Festival to be held in Bhopal, from January 12 – 14, 2019, to receive the award in a glittering ceremony. The literature festival will be inaugurated by the Union Tourism Minister, KJ KJ Alphons, on January 12, at Bharat Bhawan – the multi-cultural hub in Bhopal. The shortlist is (not in any order): Brothers (Manju Kapur, Penguin Viking) The Glass Bead Curtain (Lakshmi Kannan, Vitasta) The Untitled (Gayathri Prabhu, Fourth Estate/Harper Collins Publishers) Son of the Thundercloud (Easterine Kire, Speaking Tiger) Things to Leave Behind (Namita Gokhale, Penguin Viking)last_img read more

Undaunted by US backtracking Cuba forges ahead with new hotel plans

first_img<< Previous PostNext Post >> Travelweek Group Posted by Friday, May 11, 2018 Undaunted by U.S. backtracking, Cuba forges ahead with new hotel planscenter_img TORONTO — Cuba is aiming for at least 103,000 new hotel rooms and eight new hotels by 2030.The Cuba Tourist Board has laid out its plans for tourism infrastructure growth and development from 2018 to 2030.The plan comes in response to what the Cuba Tourist Board says is consistently growing demand for the destination. More than a million Canadians visit Cuba every year. Overall Cuba received 4.7 million visitors in 2017, a 16.2% increase over 2016.Cuba began intensifying its hotel development plans in 2017. With an annual hotel infrastructure growth rate of 10%, collaborative efforts between the government and international developers have led to the addition of over 2,500 hotels room each year.This growth rate is expected to swell as the country sets projections for 103,000 new rooms and at least eight new hotels by 2030, says the tourism board.The Hotel Varadero Internacional, the Prado y Malecón and the Packard Hotel in Havana are scheduled to open by 2019.More news:  Flights cancelled as British Airways hit by computer problemCuba is also set to add 23 nautical stations and marinas, 24 golf courses, and 47 entertainment facilities over the next 12 years. Cuba is already home to 10 world heritage sites, 14 national parks, and hundreds of national monuments.Securing foreign investment is crucial for the island’s development and Cuba tourism authorities have announced 87 management and development contracts with 19 international companies.These agreements will channel most of the investment from abroad into hotel rooms and theme parks, says the tourism board, while domestic investment goes to high-priority regions and provinces like Havana, Cienfuegos, Camaguey, Las Tunas and Holguin. Tags: Cuba Sharelast_img read more

Political expert Mark Jones available to discuss Texas runoff for US Senate

first_imgAddThis ShareDavid Ruth713-348-6327david@rice.eduJeff Falk713-348-6775jfalk@rice.eduPolitical expert Mark Jones available to discuss Texas runoff for US Senate seatHOUSTON – (July 24, 2012) – Rice University political scientist Mark Jones is available to discuss the July 31 U.S. Senate runoff between former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.“With a little over a week until election day, the GOP Senate primary remains a very competitive race, with both Cruz and Dewhurst having a realistic chance of victory,” Jones said. “Both sides have invested heavily in their TV air-war campaigns as well as their ground games as they work to get their supporters to vote absentee, vote early and turn out on election day.”Jones said the strong get-out-the-vote and television advertising efforts should result in between 750,000 and a million voters participating in the GOP primary, and the higher turnout means better odds for a Dewhurst victory.“To reverse the advantage that Dewhurst enjoyed May 29, Cruz will need to mobilize his supporters to turn out at a much higher rate than those of Dewhurst while simultaneously convincing a nontrivial number of those who cast a vote for Dewhurst in May to ‘Choose Cruz’ in July,” Jones said.According to Jones, Cruz is running a very strong campaign against Dewhurst, who has the support of a large share of the state Republican establishment.“A Cruz victory would send shock waves through Texas Republican politics and embolden movement conservatives throughout the state to ratchet up their challenges to the GOP establishment and its principal financial backers in the 2014 Republican primaries,” Jones said. “It would also provide a model for future campaigns by movement conservative candidates against establishment conservative candidates, with the key to victory being the combination of strong grassroots support in state and strong financial support from out of state.”Jones, who is the chair of political science at Rice and a fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, is a leading expert on Texas politics and has been quoted nationally about the Texas senate race. He has authored reports on the partisanship of Texas state senators and representatives, and he wrote guest columns about the 2012 GOP primary races and the political affiliation of Dewhurst.To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.-30-This news release can be found online at http://news.rice.edu/2012/07/24/political-expert-mark-jones-available-to-discuss-texas-runoff-for-us-senate-seat/.Related materials: Mark Jones bio: http://www.bakerinstitute.org/personnel/fellows-scholars/mjonesLocal media (broadcast and print/online):Texas Senate race down to ‘style’ (July 16, 2012 – KRIV TV): http://www.myfoxhouston.com/story/19039852/2012/07/16/texas-senate-race-down-to-styleGuest Column: Republican Candidates, Side by Side (May 7, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-legislative-election/guest-column-republican-candidates-side-sideGuest Column: How Conservative is David Dewhurst? (March 28, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-column-how-conservative-david-dewhurstGuest Column: How Partisan Are Texas State Senators? (February 28, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-columnist-how-partisan-are-texas-state-senatGuest Column: How Partisan are Texas House Members? (July 8, 2011 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-column-how-partisan-are-texas-house-membersNational media placements (print/online):Texas Race For Senate Is Headed For Runoff (May 30, 2012 – Wall Street Journal):http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303807404577435160339327198.htmlTexas Voters Set Dewhurst, Cruz Republican Senate Runoff (May 30, 2012 – Bloomberg): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/texas-voters-set-dewhurst-cruz-republican-senate-runoff.htmlSenate race in Texas headed for runoff (May 30, 2012 – Chicago Tribune): http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-05-30/news/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-texas-senatebre84o1cs-20120525_1_election-runoff-texas-senate-senate-raceTea Party takes on establishment Republican in Texas Senate race (May 25, 2012 – Reuters): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/us-usa-campaign-texas-senate-idUSBRE84O1CS20120525Photos:DewhurstDavid Dewhurst: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d9/David_Dewhurst_head_shot.jpgCruzTed Cruz: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Ted_Cruz_by_Gage_Skidmore_2.jpgPhoto credit: WikipediaLocated on a 300-acre forested campus in Houston, Rice University is consistently ranked among the nation’s top 20 universities by U.S. News & World Report. Rice has highly respected schools of Architecture, Business, Continuing Studies, Engineering, Humanities, Music, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences and is home to the Baker Institute for Public Policy. With 3,708 undergraduates and 2,374 graduate students, Rice’s undergraduate student-to-faculty ratio is 6-to-1. Its residential college system builds close-knit communities and lifelong friendships, just one reason why Rice has been ranked No. 1 for best quality of life multiple times by the Princeton Review and No. 4 for “best value” among private universities by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance. To read “What they’re saying about Rice,” go to www.rice.edu/nationalmedia/Rice.pdf.If you do not wish to receive news releases from Rice University, reply to this email and write “unsubscribe” in the subject line.Office of News and Media Relations – MS 300, Rice University, 6100 Main St., Houston, TX 77005last_img read more