The Texas Rangers Got Better But Their Record Got Way Worse

Just about everything that could go right for the 2016 Texas Rangers did. Flying in the face of preseason projections that called for them to finish around .500, the Rangers rode stellar seasons from Adrian Beltre, Cole Hamels and Elvis Andrus (among others) all the way to 95 wins, the AL West crown and the league’s best record. At the same time, however, they relied on a combination of metrics that confounded sabermetricians all season long: a 36-11 record in one-run games — the best mark in MLB history — and on top of that, a better run differential than we’d expect from their underlying stats, too.In other words, number-crunchers suspected the Rangers had been massively, historically lucky last season — and were probably due for a downturn in 2017. But even the statheads didn’t see Texas’s fortunes reversing quite as much as they have. After that record-setting mark in close games a year ago, the Rangers somehow have the league’s second-worst winning percentage in one-run contests this year, and they’ve also scored fewer runs (and allowed more) than their statistics would predict. All the things that went right last season are now going wrong; as a result, Texas is in fourth place with little chance of making the playoffs.Here’s the funny thing, though: Deep down, the Rangers’ 2017 squad is probably every bit as good as its 2016 iteration, and possibly a little better, despite the huge decline in winning percentage. According to wins above replacement (WAR),1Averaging together the Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com versions of WAR. Texas had the 16th-best team in baseball last season with 32.4 total WAR. (For a sense of scale, the average team has about 33 WAR,2A .500 record in 162 games is 81-81, and WAR sets the replacement level at about 48 wins for an entire season. 81 minus 48 equals 33 WAR for the average team. meaning the 95-win Rangers were basically a middle-of-the-road ballclub after stripping away their good fortune in high-leverage situations.) This season, the Rangers are on pace for 32.8 total WAR over 162 games — ever so slightly more than they posted a year ago, and good for 13th-most in MLB.Some Texas players have been even better than last year (Andrus) and some disappointingly worse (Rougned Odor), but on the whole they’ve played basically the same at an individual level. The only real difference between the two versions of the Rangers has been in sequencing — that is, scoring more (and/or allowing fewer) runs than the underlying stats would predict, because events were timed right within an inning — and performance in close games. As Texas is learning, those categories can be extremely fluky, and teams who overachieve in them one year tend to see their records dramatically regress to the mean in the following season.We can measure how much a team benefited from each kind of good fortune with a couple of metrics: Base runs, which estimate how many runs a team “should have” scored and allowed based on its underlying stats, and the Pythagorean expectation, which estimates how many games a team “should have” won based on its run differential. Deviations from each estimate come, respectively, from fortunate sequencing and good luck in close games. And by those standards, last year’s Rangers — who beat their estimated record by a staggering 13 wins — were one of the luckiest teams in baseball history. According to TheBaseballGauge.com, they tied for the third-biggest difference between a team’s actual and expected records during the expansion era.3Since 1961. 2008Angels10062+5+12+17-3 ACTUAL RECORDWINS OF LUCK 2007D-backs9072+2+11+13-8 1969Mets10062+6+8+14-17 1962Reds9864+6+5+11-12 1973Reds9963+7+5+12-1 1987Cardinals9567+10+3+13-19 2006Athletics9369+6+8+13-17 1982Red Sox8973+7+4+11-11 2013Yankees8577+6+6+12-1 1977Orioles9764+2+9+11-7 YEARTEAMWINSLOSSESSEQUENCINGCLOSE GAMESTOTALCHG. IN WINS NEXT SEASON 1985White Sox8577+8+2+11-13 1985Angels9072+5+6+11+2 1987Twins8577+5+6+11+6 1984Mets9072-1+12+11+8 Change in wins is the difference in wins between this season and the next. In cases where an uneven number of games were played, the change is derived by pro-rating the team’s change in winning percentage over the number of games they played during the “lucky” season.Source: The Baseball Gauge 1963Dodgers9963+6+7+13-19 1972Mets83730+11+11-4 2012Orioles93690+11+12-8 1961Reds9361+1+10+110 2016Rangers95670+13+13-15 After the luck has goneMLB teams with the most extra wins of luck from sequencing and close games, 1961-2017 1989Astros8676+3+7+11-11 Even among those lucky teams, the Rangers’ fall this season has been especially steep. They’re on pace for a 15-win decline from 2016, in part because their luck has actually turned in the opposite direction. So far this season, they’ve managed to win one fewer game than they would have with neutral sequencing and normal luck in close games. And this fickle twist of fate is basically the difference between Texas comfortably returning to the playoffs and being on the outside looking in: The Rangers are currently two games out of the American League’s second wild-card spot, with five teams ahead of them to leapfrog as well. If they had last year’s luck again, they’d be five games clear of the New York Yankees for the first wild-card.Instead, the Rangers serve as yet another reminder of just how unpredictable baseball can be. A team can boast practically identical talent in consecutive seasons,4According to The Baseball Gauge’s meta-metric that mixes the various types of WAR available online, here were Texas’ 2016 ranks in batting, fielding, starting pitching and relief pitching value: 16th, 9th, 13th and 21st. Those same ranks in 2017: 14th, 13th, 9th and 22nd. and still see their record fluctuate wildly from one year to the next. In the face of such a cruel and random universe, the best a team and its fans can do is to relish the breaks when they go their way, and enjoy the small blessings of a season when they don’t.Check out our latest MLB predictions. read more

Scattered showers continue several schools closed Friday

first_img February 15, 2019 Posted: February 15, 2019 KUSI Newsroom, Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitter KUSI Newsroom Scattered showers continue, several schools closed Friday SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Scattered showers are expected in San Diego County Friday following a powerful storm that brought record-setting rainfall, widespread flooding, mudslides and prompted school closures across the soaked region.The San Diego County Office of Education announced that Vallecitos Elementary School in Rainbow cancelled classes Thursday and schools in the Bonsall Unified School District, Fallbrook Union Elementary School District, Mountain Empire Unified School District, Julian Union School District, Julian Union High School District, Vallecitos School District and Fallbrook Union School District will be closed Friday.The schools were closed because the powerful storm led to “power outages, flooding, road closures, and dangerous travel conditions,” county Office of Education spokeswoman Music Watson said.A series of weak, low-pressure systems will bring periodic showers until Monday, with the best chance for rain Friday evening and Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, according to the National Weather Service.Coastal and inland-valley areas are expected to get up to two-tenths of an inch of rain Friday while the mountains are forecast to receive up to a half-inch of rainfall and less than one-tenth of an inch is expected in the county deserts, forecasters said. last_img read more

D Editor Ill be Writing and Illustrating Every Story in Our February

first_imgInteresting quote in the story about layoffs at Dallas’ D magazine, via executive editor Tim Rogers:”What that means is I’ll be writing and illustrating every story in our February issue, for starters.”Full text of Rogers’ e-mail to FOLIO::Here’s what I can tell you about the cuts: We’ve experienced explosive growth since I came to work for the company seven years ago. We assembled the best team of media professionals in North Texas — if not the Milky Way. Every one of the 14 people we let go from the magazine division will be missed. It was a painful process.The reason for the cuts? Ad revenue for us is down. More important, our projections indicate 2009 will be a lean year. We did what was necessary to keep our company profitable and healthy.As for D Magazine proper, we did not lose a single edit or art person — though we all took pay cuts. And we will be working with reduced freelance budgets. What that means is I’ll be writing and illustrating every story in our February issue, for starters. Expect a magazine focused on every detail of my personal life. Should be a newsstand killer.—Tim RogersExecutive EditorD Magazine4311 Oak Lawn, Suite 100Dallas, TX 75219[PHONE REDACTED]www.dmagazine.comlast_img read more

Town Wants To Add 4 New Firefighter Positions First Staffing Increase Since 2009

first_imgWILMINGTON, MA — Town Manager Jeff Hull recently announced he would like to include the addition of four new firefighter positions in next fiscal year’s budget.“For more than a year, the Fire Department has consistently been short staffed due to long term work injury, personal injury, retirements or military deployments,” explained Hull in his annual budget message. “Since staffing levels cannot be reduced below current levels without impacting service, each absence has been filled at the overtime rate. Reducing overtime costs and adjusting the staffing levels to meet the current service demands cannot be completed in one fiscal year. However, adding four firefighter privates will begin to address these issues.”Hull stressed that the Fire Department hasn’t received any staffing increases since 2009, while their workload has risen dramatically.“The numbers of runs reported in 2009 totaled 3,364. This statistic reflects ambulance runs, responses to fire radio boxes, and fire responses,” revealed Hull. “For the most current reporting period, 2018, the Fire Department reported 4,192 runs, an increase of 24.6% over that nine-year period.”The cost for the additional four fire personnel is projected to cost $257,628.In response to a question from Selectman Ed Loud, Hull acknowledged more hires may be budgeted in future years. Fire Chief Joe McMahon and Deputy Chief Joe McMahon previously came in front of Selectmen and Finance Committee requesting the addition of 8 firefighter positions.“I’m suggesting there may be additional staff increases to come, but for Fiscal Year 2020, four is what we can manage,” said Hull. Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedSelectmen Support Proposal To Hire EIGHT New Firefighters, First WFD Staffing Increase In A DecadeIn “Police Log”SELECTMEN NEWS: Board Supports Fire & Police Substation In North Wilmington; Town To Vote On Project In April 2020?In “Government”SELECTMEN NEWS: Finance Committee Call Special Meeting To Discuss IT Costs, Fire Dept. OT & New Fire EngineIn “Government”last_img read more

Law enforcement to determine accuracy of news

first_imgLaw enforcement to step up control of mediaLaw minister Anisul Huq and telecommunications minister Mustafa Jabbar on 19 April said, the Digital Security Act was not made to target the media. It would not affect freedom of expression or freedom of press either. The ministers said this at a meeting with cabinet members at the time.Legal experts, however, say if the bill is passed, the government law enforcement agencies like RAB, police, BGB and Ansar will eventually emerge as the ultimate ‘editors’ or ‘super editors’.“Which news content is right and which one is harmful- all of this will depend on their own logic and whims,” they said.According to the experts, the law enforcers will be able to use this act to request BTRC to block any digital media at any time.Bangladesh Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (BTRC) is an autonomous organisation. To be a member of BTRC, one has to have the criteria of a judge of the Supreme Court. Still, if they receive any ‘request’ from RAB, police or any other law enforcement agencies, they will ‘immediately’ respond.The law enforcement agencies were not even given such power in the IT Act of 2006. Law enforcers had to seek court permission to seize computers used to commit any alleged crime under that act.Under sub-section- 1 of section-8 in the current proposed act, it is possible to remove any news content published in digital media if it seems to be a threat to digital security.Sumon Ahmed, a member of the advisory committee of the United Nations Internet Governance Forum, told Prothom Alo, BTRC can block any newspaper’s webpage containing standard Hyper Text Transfer Protocol (http), if they cannot remove contents of the page. BTRC, however, will not be able to remove or block the webpage where ‘s’ (secured) is added to the http.Apart from that, BTRC can block the newspapers’ webpage only in Bangladesh.Law enforcers to be more powerfulUnder section-43 of the act, if a police officer suspects any crime or evidence, he can register the incident in his office and conduct a search into any media office, seize computers, search and arrest anybody, without arrest warrant.In sub-section-2 of section-8, the law enforcement agencies can request BTRC to remove news contents that violate the country’s solidarity, affect economic activities, defence and security, religious values or public order and spread communal hatred among people.In sub-section 3, it is said that the contents will be removed or blocked by BTRC immediately upon receiving such request.Acknowledging these concerns, media experts said such rules would certainly violate the freedom of expression and instigate a hostile reaction towards media persons.Shahdeen Malik, a Supreme Court lawyer told Prothom Alo, “It seems we are going back to the Special Powers Act of 1974.”Another lawyer Khurshid Alam Khan thinks the definition of law enforcement agencies should be clarified, as the army also falls under the definition of law enforcement agencies.Under the act, a digital security agency is said to be created under a director general. An emergency response team will be formed for constant monitoring. Their work will be determined by a policy.So this bill is not the final word. There is scope to make the rules even more difficult.Digital act includes 8 ‘crimes’ from 1974 actThe eight definitions of the relevant 1974 act interpreted by justice Muhammad Habibur Rahman and Anisuzzaman in ‘Ain Shabdokosh’ (dictionary of legal terms), bears resemblance to the the law related to blocking websites.Also, the current digital act contains almost all the eight crimes mentioned in the 1974 act. The similarities in the digital act include, three in section 8 (defence, security, ethnic hatred), one in section 25 (intimidation), two in section 27 (foreign states and public order), and two in section 31 (related to security and community).Muhammad Habibur Rahman and Anisuzzaman recorded in eight points the reasons why newspapers were confiscated. This indicates that the special power of the law enforcing agencies to block online newspapers given in digital act is akin to the confiscation of newspapers in the 1974 act.The eight points are: 1. Sovereignty or defence of Bangladesh; 2. Having friendly relations with foreign countries; 3. Threat to the country’s security or public security or public order; 4. Instigating hatred or hostility among different communities and classes; 5. Intervention or incitement in law enforcement; 6. Obstructing supply of essential goods; 7. Creating panic or anarchy in society; 8. Causing or intending to cause financial and social damage of the state. No safeguard for editorsIn some of the instances, the terms used to define punishable crimes for online publication are severer than those in the much debated sections annulled in 2006.Many legal experts are surprised at the free access given to the law enforcement that will enable indiscriminate abuse of the law. They observe, it will add to the spree of arrests, filing of cases and harassment.The editors and journalists have to depend on the police for their online publications. But in the 1973 printing presses and publications act under CrPC (Code of Criminal Procedure) section 108, safeguards were provided for editors, publishers and presses. The 108 section still has the provision.It says, any charges could be filed against the owner, editor, publisher or printer of any newspaper registered under the 1973 presses and publications act alleging instigation of sedition, hatred, fear, if the concerned government authorities or officials issue an order in this regard.Though safeguards remain in place for the press for the same crimes, they are not ensured for online publications.The digital security act vests the power to determine objectionable content, with the police and Ansar, BGB and RAB. Such free license for the law enforcement is unprecedented in the country. This development implies that BTRC will become paper tiger.Deviation from 1974 actIn the 1974 act there were remedies for banning or forfeiture of newspapers. The digital act does not address this. This act does not specify any authority to approach for or record any appeal. The span of time for a website to remain blocked is not specified either. There was no provision to confiscate any newspaper on grounds of hurting religious sentiment in the 1974 special powers act nor in section 99 of the 1991 CrPC enacted by the BNP government.In the much-debated Act 57, there was provision for action against crimes of hurting ‘religious sentiment’. But Awami League has made the matter ambiguous by defining ‘hurting religious values’ as a crime under which online media can be blocked.Now police, Ansar, coast guard, BGB and RAB will determine the degree of religious values being offended and will search, arrest without any warrant, and block online publications without any trial.Section 17 of 1974 said, the government will inform the publisher, editor as soon as possible of the confiscation and will issue written orders to submit the printed copies, stop distribution, and file the writer’s name. The act also says that the government must state reasonable grounds in the order and let the accused editor and journalist to present an answer in response to the order. The government must also mention that the accused has the right to self defence.The government has not expressed any intention of adding such provisions in the new digital act. The law minister Anisul Huq and the information technology minister Mustafa Jabbar have said they would take all the concerns of the editors’ council into consideration.The 1974 act stated that a police official, not below the rank of sub-inspector, with a warrant and with the magistrate’s approval, can search a newspaper office. Any search was forbidden after sunset and before sunrise. But the digital security act lacks such safeguards.Notably, in the abolished section 18 under the 1974 act there was provision for any report on security, friendly relations with foreign states, public order to be cleared for publication within 72 hours of submission to the government.There was even provision for appeal to be filed within seven days of a certain report being banned. Another provision stated that the appeal should be disposed after hearing by a district judge. In the proposed digital act, the stated crimes are the same as in the 1974 act, but with no scope for seeking remedy. *This report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat and Nusrat Nowrin.last_img read more

Cold Weather To Continue Through Wednesday National Weather Services Forecast

first_imgNational Weather Services Share Cold temperatures can be expected Wednesday and Thursday and another Hard Freeze Warning might be needed. A warming trend can be expected at the end of the week and over the weekend.NWS Houstoncenter_img There will be some accumulations of sleet and ice on structures and vegetation. Where temperatures are below freezing longer, impacts to roads and possibly power lines are expected with icing. Precipitation will end from north to south beginning this afternoon, so portions of the warning may be cancelled early. The area will see breezy north winds, gusting to 25 to 35 mph and even higher at the coast. There will also be hazardous wind chills falling into the teens areawide by this afternoon. Hard Freeze Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed tonight through Wednesday morning.last_img read more

Memorabilia of music maestros

first_imgMusic expresses all emotions and acts the mediator between the spiritual and the sensual life. In order to present a collection of candid shots of musicians in the form a literary piece, Padma Shri Shobha Deepak Singh has compiled a rare anthology of 250 photographs of the great Indian music maestros, emoting the multiple emotions of Indian music through her coffee table book titled Musicscapes. Musicscapes, which follows close on the heels of Shobha Deepak Singh’s Theatrescapes (2014) and Dancescapes (2013), becomes a homage to her deepest and most long engaging love-music. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’Musicscapes published by Roli Books, was launched by Sheila Dixit and Shekhar Sen, Chairman, Sangeet Natak Akademi, at Visual Arts Gallery, India Habitat Centre on April 8. An exhibition of 60 photographs of the country’s music luminaries, which has been put up by the curatorial expertise of Dr Alka Pande, will be on till April 14 in the national Capital.Shobha Deepak Singh said, “Classical music liberates me and it leads me to a state where I feel I am truly elevated. What classical music does best and continues to do is to show a kind of transformation of moods, to show a very wide psychological voyage.  Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with Netflix“When I did my first two books, I thought I covered the canvas of emotion and motion. But as I looked through many of these photos, I realised that there was so much unsung emotion that needs to be felt by others too. The book helps to accomplish that.” Dr Alka Pande, the illustrious curator of the exhibition said, “The book is a compilation of all those great artists who have contributed magnificently to the vocal and instrumental musicscape of India. This is a survey of Shobha’s work as she captures moments, iconic and unusual, rubbing shoulders with the greats.”last_img read more

Visitors advised against festive behaviour during Thai Kings mourning

first_imgVisitors advised against ‘festive’ behaviour during Thai King’s mourning Tags: Thailand, Travel Alert BANGKOK — Concerts and colossal beach parties in Thailand have been cancelled. An annual festival meant to placate the country’s goddess of water with lanterns that float into the sky will not take place.And closed for the first time in years: red-light districts in the heart of the Thai capital filled with seedy go-go bars so irrepressible they managed to stay open even through past military coups.No foreign government has suggested its nationals to cancel trip plans, but several have issued advisories. Canada called on its citizens to “refrain from any behaviour that may be interpreted as festive, disrespectful or disorderly,” Britain urged its nationals to “wear sombre and respectful clothing when in public,” and the U.S. called on Americans to maintain “decorum during this extended period of profound mourning.”The death Thursday of Thailand’s revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej has plunged this Southeast Asian nation into an unprecedented period of mourning like nothing it has ever seen, and it’s likely to stay that way for some time.But calm – not chaos – prevails, and the closures and cancellations are unlikely to last more than a month or have any serious long-term impact on tourism.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has declared a one-year mourning period and urged people to refrain from organizing entertainment events for 30 days. But he has also made clear that life must go on, and urged businesses to remain open to ensure the nation does not “lose its credibility.”More than 30 million tourists visit Thailand every year, accounting for about 10 per cent of government revenue. The industry is one of the few bright spots in an economy that has slumped since the army ousted a democratically elected government in 2014.More news:  Virgin Voyages de-activates Quebec accounts at FirstMates agent portalIn a statement late Friday, the Tourism Authority of Thailand confirmed that tourist attractions will remain open with the exception of Bangkok’s gold-gilded Grand Palace, because it “will be the venue of the royal funeral rites.”Bhumibol’s body was transported by royal procession to the palace’s Temple of the Emerald Buddha, or Wat Phra Kaew, on Friday as thousands of people lined the roads. Widely seen here as a unifying figure and the father of the nation, Bhumibol served as monarch for 70 years – so long that most Thais have known no other.The subdued atmosphere that has engulfed the country since his death is unmistakable, visible in the black or white dress worn by millions of Thais in a massive show of mourning that has been displayed even on mannequins in luxury shopping malls.In Bangkok, the neon-lit dinner cruise ships that ply the majestic Chao Phraya River every night have turned off their booming music.Even some of the capital’s most prominent red-light districts have shut down. Nana Plaza, a three-story complex of go-go bars filled with scantily-clad women announced it was closing temporarily to “pay respect and mourn the passing of His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej the Great.”“It doesn’t bother me,” said Australian tourist Darren Turner, who was standing outside the all-dark plaza. “This is a man who stood on the throne unopposed for 70 years. He did a lot for his country and his people, and it’s good to show a mark of respect for his passing.”More news:  TRAVELSAVERS welcomes Julie Virgilio to the teamThe neon lights of another red-light district nearby, Soi Cowboy, abruptly switched off Friday night after police and soldiers paid a visit and asked bar managers to close to show respect of the king.Hours after Bhumibol’s death on Thursday, Richard Barrow, a Bangkok-based travel blogger, tweeted that many tourists were “asking if they should cancel their holiday.” His is advice: you should not.No foreign government has suggested its nationals to cancel trip plans, but several have issued advisories. Canada called on its citizens to “refrain from any behaviour that may be interpreted as festive, disrespectful or disorderly,” Britain urged its nationals to “wear sombre and respectful clothing when in public,” and the U.S. called on Americans to maintain “decorum during this extended period of profound mourning.”While Thailand’s stunning beaches and resorts remain open, some tourists’ plans to see particular events may already be ruined.In the northern city of Chiang Mai, the city government announced the annual Yi Peng Festival set for mid-November – in which tens of thousands of lanterns float into the sky – has been cancelled.On the island of Koh Phangan, organizers of the renowned “Full Moon” party, which had been set to begin Oct. 17, called the event off.And in Bangkok, a sold-out concert featuring British singer Morrissey, the former frontman of The Smiths, was also cancelled.Khaosod English, a local media outlet which reported numerous cancellations in the capital, offered prudent advice to its readers for upcoming events: “Call ahead first.” The Canadian Press Posted bycenter_img Share Monday, October 17, 2016 << Previous PostNext Post >>last_img read more